Monday, September 12, 2011

5 interesting observations regarding Ron Paul in CNN/ORC poll

The poll, taken between Sept 9th and 11th, interviewed 1,038 Adult Americans.

The link to the poll findings is here, http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/09/11/rel15a.pdf

The results without Sarah Palin:
Perry:      32%
Romney:  21%
Paul:        13%
Bachmann: 7%
Gingrich:    7%

There are some interesting tendencies with Ron Paul supporters.

1. Tea Party does not support Paul


When Sarah Palin is included in race, Ron Paul has 12% support. Yet, of those people who consider themselves supporters of the Tea Party, only 8% believe Paul is the best candidate. There were no results for people opposed to the Tea Party. This is very surprising and also quite disheartening for Paul supporters. The Tea Party may not really be a Tea Party, but just a more conservative/religious wing of the Republican party. The Cato Institute did a study on the Tea Party, I may break that down in the future. Ron Paul was the tea party before the tea party existed, yet the tea party does not support him! This is like turning away from your founders, an ironic move for the framer-friendly tea party to do.

2. People really do not think Paul can win, even if they like him the most.

Only 4% believed Paul was the most likely to win, despite being favored by 13%. Both Palin & Cain were viewed as more likely to win, the fact that the first is a space-cadet and not in the race, and the latter is a pizza-man radio host does not bode well for the optimism Paul is instilling in people about his chances.

3. Bachmann is more likeable than Paul!

WTF. How is Bachmann more likeable than Paul. Bachmann was found to be the most likeable candidate by 11%, Paul by 7%. Perhaps this is a result of Paul being so different from the other candidates that he often must ardently fight for his beliefs where discussion amongst other candidates is more amiable (generally) with similar political leanings with immaterial nuanced differences (so they may seem unique and give you an impression of choice).

Also, 25% found Perry the most likeable, because what is not likeable about a man who does not struggle with the decision to execute prisoners.

4. Poorer people (less than 50k year) are more supportive of Paul


I do not know why this is the case, although I am pleased to hear it. Perhaps those people who are richer are those who have been benefited by the status quo, and therefore would not benefit by changing that to a more competitive model. If I worked as a doctor or as a lawyer (hopefully soon) or as an owner of a taxicab service and medallions I would be opposed to Paul and free markets, If I were a taxi driver, if I were a paralegal, I would support Paul. [Do you get why?]

5. Independents highly support Paul


19% of independents support Paul (as opposed to 13% of general populace according to poll). Republicans are the least supportive and conservatives are fairly supportive. Perry is the only candidate with more independent support, at 23%.

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